Guest blog written by Stephen Kidd, Director of Strategy and Research at the World Nuclear Power Association. He is also on the advisory board for Nuclear Power Europe 2010.

In Europe and the United States, signs of the mooted “nuclear renaissance” are increasingly positive but it is in China (which now has 21 out of the 53 reactors under construction around the world) that the initial boom is occurring. Increasing mentions of nuclear power in the mass media, often with a generally positive slant, are very welcome fine but the industry now needs to build new reactors in great volume. China, with its vast requirements for clean power generation, is therefore the key.

An important element has been public statements from respected third party advocates for nuclear, many of whom were previously either strongly opposed or seen as agnostic. Some of these come from the environmental movement, notably Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, but the support of James Lovelock, the originator of the Gaia Theory of the Earth as a self-regulating organism has been particularly important.

To the extent that public opinion can be measured, it is clear that there has been a turnaround in favour of nuclear in key countries, to the extent that public consent is unlikely now to be withheld from new reactor plans in many countries of the world. Public opposition to nuclear remains an important issue in some European countries, notably in Germany, but the new government there and reversal of nuclear phase-out policies in Sweden and Belgium indicate that things are generally improving. The industry has recognised that it has to bring the general public along with its plans via an in-depth dialogue. It accepts that concerns over safety, waste and non-proliferation will continue to impose a strict regulatory regime on the industry and that this is necessary, despite it costing a great deal of valuable time and money.

One possible barrier to renewed industry growth is that the industry’s supply sector has been “mummified” for the past 20 years. This is now, however, starting to respond positively – for example, membership of the UK Nuclear Industry Association (NIA) has boomed as companies realise that there will be many new opportunities in this sector as the UK returns to building reactors. Another possible negative, namely the need to ensure a strict world non-proliferation regime, has been reinforced by North Korean and the Iranian cases, to which endless column inches and analyses have been devoted. On the other hand, three things of great substance have moved very strongly in the industry’s favour, namely the industry’s own operating performance, the greenhouse gas emissions debate and concerns over energy security of supply.
It is unchallengeable that the current 435 reactors around the world generate electricity very cheaply and earns significant profits for their owners, irrespective of the power market, whether it is liberalised or regulated. The challenge for the industry is to cut the capital investment costs of new reactors to enable many new reactor projects to go forward. It is also unarguable that concerns over climate change and the perceived need to moderate greenhouse gas emissions has worked strongly in the industry’s favour and, at the very least, opened an opportunity for the industry as a viable mitigation technology. The argument for more nuclear power as a means of securing additional energy security of supply has also become increasingly important, particularly in those countries who perceive themselves as becoming increasingly reliant on supplies from geopolitically unstable or otherwise unattractive countries. It is important to recall that this was the main argument that prompted both France and Japan, now numbers two and three in world nuclear generation, to go down this path in the 1970s in the aftermath of two “oil shocks”.

Proof of whether the mooted nuclear renaissance is merely “industry hype” (as some commentators suggest) or reality will come over the next decade. Before many new countries can take on the challenge of running large nuclear reactors, the established players have got to start building reactors again, and now is as good a time as any.