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peak oil

Low Oil Prices: Why Worry?

October 1, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Oil Prices and Economic Anxiety

Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked about high oil prices. Thus, low oil prices are viewed as an all around benefit.[read more]

Peak Oil is a Function of Oil Price

September 21, 2015 by Robert Rapier

Peak Oil and Prices

The scientific study of peak oil began in the 1950′s, when Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert reported on the evolution of production rates in oil and gas fields. In a 1956 paper Hubbert suggested that oil production in a particular region would approximate a bell curve.[read more]

How Economic Growth Fails

August 11, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Limits of Growth

Our economy is a networked system. I have illustrated it as being similar to a child’s building toy. Ever-larger structures can be built by adding more businesses and consumers, and by using resources of various kinds to produce an increasing quantity of goods and services.[read more]

Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May "Morph" Into Something Much Worse

July 24, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Low Oil Prices and Economic Risk

Why are commodity prices lagging? The question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and cars, demand for these products would be raising the prices of commodities.[read more]

The Energy Gang: Peak Oil in an Era of Fossil Fuel Abundance [PODCAST]

May 18, 2015 by Stephen Lacey

Peak Oil and Fuel Booms

Over the last few years, those worried about peak oil have been on the defensive. The fracking revolution has brought an abundance of oil and gas that no one thought possible. So we can declare peak oil dead, right? Chris Nelder, an energy analyst, has a simple answer: No.[read more]

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything, From Oil to Labor to Capital

May 9, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Supply and Risk

Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to Growth, a situation modeled in 1972 in a book by that name. What happens is that economic growth eventually runs into limits.[read more]

Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem

May 2, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Fuel Limits and Energy Modeling

We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone comes to this conclusion.[read more]

Putting the Real Story of Energy and the Economy Together

April 17, 2015 by Gail Tverberg

Workers and Energy Economics

What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories. One is the story economists tell: The economy can grow forever; energy shortages will have no impact on the economy. We can simply substitute other forms of energy, or do without.[read more]

Macquarie's Brian Bagnell: Forget Peak Oil, Worry About Peak Demand

February 28, 2015 by Jim Patrick

Oil, Demand, and Energy Markets


Brian Bagnell, CFA, is a research analyst in Canadian oil and gas company analysis for Macquarie Capital Markets in Calgary. He was formerly an investment associate at the NB Investment Management Corp. He holds a bachelor's degree from the University of New Brunswick.[read more]

Eight Pieces of Our Oil Price Predicament

October 25, 2014 by Gail Tverberg

Oil Prices and Problems

A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would set themselves at a level that would be high enough for the majority of producers, so that in total producers would provide enough–but not too much–oil for the world economy. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to work that way recently.[read more]

Increasing Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

October 22, 2014 by Ripudaman Malhotra

Oil and Risk Management

I have often noted that since the writing of 'A Cubic Mile of Oil' that global reserves of oil have actually increased, not decreased, despite greatly increased consumption. In this post I want to dig deeper and look at the changes that have brought about this paradox, and what it means for Peak Oil.[read more]

WSJ Gets it Wrong on 'Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven't Come True'

October 10, 2014 by Gail Tverberg

The Wall Street Journal and Peak Oil

The Wall Street Journal published “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True, which seems to say there are two possible outcomes: The peak oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or diminishing returns can and are being put off by technological progress. But a third outcome is actually happening.[read more]

Update on US Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables

August 28, 2014 by Gail Tverberg

Fuel, Electricity, and the US

United States natural gas production leveled off in 2013, because of the low level of US natural gas prices. In 2013, there was growth in gas production in Pennsylvania in the Marcellus, but many other states, including Texas, saw decreases in production.[read more]

Making Sense of the US Oil Story

August 8, 2014 by Gail Tverberg

Oil and US History

We frequently see stories telling us how well the United States is doing at oil extraction. The fact that there are stories in the press about the United States wanting to export crude oil adds to the hype. How many of these stories are actually true?[read more]

World Oil Production at 3/31/2014: Where are We Headed?

July 25, 2014 by Gail Tverberg

Oil Production and Energy Future

The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward. However, we may be dealing with an unstable situation.[read more]