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On State Of The Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market, October 2015 [INFOGRAPHIC]


334,588 cumulative in about 4.7 years, during which regular light vehicle cumulative sales were about 65 million.

Looking at the graphs, annual increases would be very little, about 100,000 going forward, and with subsidies expiring, that number likely will not increase, may even decrease.

No amount of rah-rah will alter economic/market realities unless mandates are put in place.

Here is a BNEF report of RE worldwide RE investments, which have been declining since the middle of 2011.

The EU committed to reduce its overall emissions about 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Achieving this target, which the EU says is legally binding, would require very large investments in renewables. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance , investment in “clean energy” in Europe has been declining steadily since the second quarter of 2011. The about $1.0 trillion invested in RE to date likely acts an additional headwind making the European economy less and less competitive.

Just click on BNEF and download the PDF

October 12, 2015    View Comment    

On Who's Reserving All Those Tesla Batteries and What Do They Plan On Using Them For?


My analysis is BEST case. Actual results are much worse, i.e., terrible.

October 10, 2015    View Comment    

On Who's Reserving All Those Tesla Batteries and What Do They Plan On Using Them For?


Here is a calculation that gives some insight regarding using batteries for storing energy at night and using it during the day.

Chevy-Volt and TESLA: The Chevy-Volt has a 16.5 kWh battery, but it uses a maximum of about 10.8 kWh (about 65% 0f its capacity), because the battery controls are set to charge to about 90% of capacity and discharge to about 25% of capacity. GM does this to minimize costs of its 8-yr/100,000 mile manufacturer's warrantee. That warrantee is for manufacturing DEFECTS, does NOT cover performance. According to GM, the battery is expected to have a performance loss of 20% over its 8-yr WARRANTEE life, and more beyond that 8-yr life. The 10.8 kWh gives the Chevy-Volt an ELECTRIC range of about 38 miles on a normal day, say about 70 F, less on very cold and on very warm days, less as the battery ages.

TESLA has a 10 kWh, Li-Ion, wall-hung, battery unit. I assume TESLA is as capable as GM, i.e., no magic, no hype. There are battery charging losses and discharging losses, and AC to DC and DC to AC conversion losses. The TESLA 10-year warrantee is for manufacturing defects, does NOT cover performance!! The INSTALLED cost of the 10 kWh unit = $3,500 + S & H + Contractor markup of about 10 percent + $2,000 for an AC to DC inverter + Misc. hardware + Installation by 2 electricians, say 16 hours @ $60/hr = $7,100, or $7,140 per this URL.

Assuming a 65% charge/discharge, and a 90% AC to DC inverter efficiency, and allocating half of the 8% DC-to-DC loss to the charging side (the unit has a round-trip DC-to-DC efficiency of 92%, per spec sheet), it would take 0.65 x 10/(0.9 x 0.96) = 7.523 AC kWh of off-peak grid energy to charge up the unit. During on-peak hours, one would get back 0.65 x 10 x 0.96 x 0.90 = 5.616 AC kWh to use in the house, for a minimum energy loss per cycle of (1 – 5.616/7.523) x 100% = 25.4%!!

If we GENEROUSLY assume the battery would have NO performance loss over its 10-yr WARRANTEE life, and one cycle per day, i.e., 3,650 cycles, and night-time cost of charging at 10 c/kWh and day-time avoided cost at 18 c/kWh, then 3,650 x (5.616 x 18 - 7.723 x 10) = $943.76 would be the gain over 10 years. The cost of financing, PLUS any costs for O&M, PLUS any capacity degradation due to cycling, PLUS the cost of depreciation are ignored.


October 9, 2015    View Comment    

On Implicit Climate Subsidy Exceeds Profits at 20 Top Fossil Fuel Companies

Bob Meinetz,

"Fossil fuels are the problem?"

No, 7.2 billion people living like there is no tomorrow is the problem.

Some of them (surplus) are spilling out of Africa, Middle East, etc., in to Europe, USA, etc., because their countries cannot support them.

That surplus will grow, and mass migration will accelerate.

September 27, 2015    View Comment    

On How Our Energy Problem Leads to a Debt Collapse Problem

"How about adding energy storage of some sort to the fossil fuel and wind mix?"

Economically viable, utility-scale energy storage has not yet been invented.

I suggest you read this article from beginning to end:

September 24, 2015    View Comment    

On How Our Energy Problem Leads to a Debt Collapse Problem


"Thus, efficiency can lead to more use of energy."

It can, if it is economically available.

As conventional energy becomes scarcer and more difficult to obtain (lower and lower ERoEI), and renewable energy (already at medium to low ERoEI) at 2 - 3 times the cost of conventional energy, having the expensive RE take over the economy would require significant EE just to stay in place, i.e., maintain lifestyles and standards of living.

Here is an example of expensive wind energy taking over the Irish economy, with balancing costs not charged to owners but to an unsuspecting, naive people.


Ireland had an island grid with a minor connection with the UK grid until October 2012. Eirgrid, the operator of the grid, publishes ¼-hour data regarding CO2 emissions, wind energy production, fuel consumption and energy generation. Drs. Udo and Wheatley made several analyses based on 2011 and earlier Irish grid operations data that offer clear evidence of the effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction decreasing with increasing annual wind energy percentages.

The Wheatley study of the Irish grid shows: Wind energy CO2 reduction effectiveness = (CO2 intensity, metric ton/MWh, with wind)/(CO2 intensity with no wind) = (0.279, @ 17% wind)/(0.53, @ no wind) = 0.526, based on SEMO data.

If 17% wind energy, wind energy promoters typically claim a 17% reduction in CO2, i.e., 83% is left over.

If 17% wind energy, actual performance data of the Irish grid shows, 0.526 x 17% is reduced = 8.94%, i.e., 91.06% is left over.

What applied to the Irish grid would apply to the New England grid as well, unless the balancing is done with hydro, a la Denmark.

Europe is facing the same problem, but it is stuck with mostly gas turbine balancing, as it does not have nearly enough hydro capacity for balancing.

Fuel and CO2 Reductions Less Than Claimed: If we assume, at zero wind energy, the gas turbines produce 100 kWh of electricity, requiring, at an average efficiency of 0.50, 100 x 3413/0.5 = 682,600 Btu of gas, then 682600 x 117/1000000 = 79.864 lb CO2 are emitted.

According to wind proponents, at 17% wind energy, 83 kWh is produced requiring 83 x 3413/0.50 = 566,558 Btu of gas, which emits 566558 x 117/1000000 = 66.287 lb CO2, for a THEORETICAL emission reduction of 13.577 lb CO2.

In the real world, the CO2 reduction is 13.577 x 0.526 = 7.144 lb CO2, for an ACTUAL reduction of 79.864 – 7.144 = 72.723 lb CO2, which would be emitted by 621,560 Btu of gas {(621560/1000000) x 117 = 72.723 lb CO2}.

To produce 83 kWh with 621,560 Btu of gas, the turbine efficiency would be 83 x 3413/621560 = 0.45575, for a turbine efficiency reduction of 100 x (1 – 0.45575/0.50) = 8.85%. Actually, Ireland’s turbines produce much more than 100 kWh in a year, but whatever they produce is at a reduced efficiency, courtesy of integrating variable wind energy.

In 2013, natural gas was 2098 ktoe/4382 ktoe = 48% of the energy for electricity generation. This likely was at least 8.85% greater due to balancing wind energy, or 2098 – 2098/1.0855 = 171 ktoe, which, at $10/million Btu, would be 171 x 39653 million x $10/million = $67.8 million in EXTRA gas cost for balancing; it is likely there are other costs related to increased wear and tear. These extra costs are not charged to wind turbine owners, but shifted onto the unsuspecting, naïve Irish people. Some people likely have been wondering why expensive gas imports have not decreased that much with all that wind energy on the grid. Now we know the reason.

September 23, 2015    View Comment    

On US Energy Future - Energy Efficiency, Wind, Solar and Nuclear Energy


Most studies about high levels of variable, intermittent renewable energy on the grid, wind and solar, do not take into account the cost of generator adequacy for balancing and supplementary energy, grid adequacy to connect the millions of distributed energy sources and maintain stability, and energy storage adequacy for when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. This article does.

Most grid systems can handle 3 - 5 percent variable energy, based on experience of the past 30 years. Beyond that percentage, the accommodations become increasingly more complicated and expensive, as some countries in Europe have experienced, and the US is beginning to experience.

Various pro-RE studies, in Europe and the US, tend to gloss over, or pretent to include them, although pretending to include them opens up the argument regarding proper treatment of those other costs.

However, enough emperical evidence has become available during the past 20 years, which makes it increasingly less likely studies can omit them, and without proper treatment, would not be considered serious studies.

Of course, almost anything on paper, LOOKS serious to lay people.

September 18, 2015    View Comment    

On Deflationary Collapse Ahead?

Mark, thank for that info.

People traveling less is likely due to more eating at home, and more home entertainment than before, I.e, lifestyle changes.

Even more telling would be miles per capita.

September 7, 2015    View Comment    

On Deflationary Collapse Ahead?


I found the article, and put the URL in my article.

September 7, 2015    View Comment    

On US Energy Future - Energy Efficiency, Wind, Solar and Nuclear Energy


It is not general knowledge about my contacts' criticizing NREL's methods.

The NREL is a government creation to promote RE, as is the Fraunhoffer Institute in Germany.

I would not have enough info to write an article. 


September 4, 2015    View Comment    

On US Energy Future - Energy Efficiency, Wind, Solar and Nuclear Energy


In my article is a nuclear option for 73% of electrical energy from nuclear (about the same as France), with the rest from hydro, wind and solar. Please reread the aticle.

There is about 4,400,000 million metric ton of uranium in the oceans. Thermal reactors use only about 1% of the fuel, breeder reactors use almost 100% of the fuel, i.e., there is enough energy to provide electricity to the world for at least 5,000 years. 

September 4, 2015    View Comment