The Energy Collective

The world's best thinkers on energy and climate

  • Home
  • Post Here
  • Columns
    • Electricity Markets & Policy Group
    • Full Spectrum
    • Energy and Policy Developments
    • Game Changers
    • Energy for Human Development
    • Seeking Consensus
    • Green Growth
    • New Energy Voices
  • Fuels
    • Oil
    • Wind
    • Nuclear Power
    • Coal
    • Natural Gas
    • Solar Power
    • Renewables
    • Biofuels
    • Geothermal Energy
    • Wave & Tidal
    • Hydro Power
  • Environment
    • Carbon and De-carbonization
    • International Climate Conferences
    • Sustainability
    • Climate
    • Public Health
    • Water
    • Recycling
  • Grid
    • Smart Grid
    • Electricity
  • Tech
    • Cleantech
    • Green Building
    • Storage
    • Rare Earth Minerals
  • Business and Economy
    • Cap-and-Trade
    • Agriculture
    • Efficiency
    • Green Business
    • Utilities
    • Finance
    • Green Jobs
    • Subsidies
    • Risk Management
  • Politics
    • Environmental Policy
    • Energy Security
    • Communications and Messaging
    • China
  • Transport
  • Help
    • FAQ
  • Account
    • Login
    • Register

Is Natural Gas The Answer? Chinese Scientists Have Announced a Better One.

January 4, 2011 by Rod Adams

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Sometimes holiday periods can interfere with keeping up with all of the news and opinions issued about an important topic like energy. On December 20. 2010, the National Journal asked 16 experts to provide commentary on the following question Is natural gas the answer? Unfortunately for the United States, there are apparently some influential people who believe that the answer is yes. If read with a proper understanding of the institutional biases of the people who wrote them, the views are not all that surprising, but the scary thing is that some of these views are making their way into the main stream of government policy.

Here is one example quote that gives me grave concerns about the kind of irrational exuberance that often occurs just before a bubble pops:

Does natural gas represent the answer to all questions surrounding America’s energy future? As a rifle-shot reply, probably not. But the very fact that a question like that is being asked in a forum like this suggests the landscape has changed dramatically, and for the better, since the days of antiquity (circa 2007) when everyone was certain we were running out of the stuff.

Thanks to the combination of two proven technologies (hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling) and the application of those technologies to tight formations deep underground, those folks look pretty silly today. According to an assessment released last year by the Potential Gas Committee, the United States could have as much as 3.22 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas potential within its borders – as much natural gas as Saudi Arabia has oil from an energy content perspective. Times two. EIA’s updated 2011 annual energy outlook paints a similar picture. Last year, the AEO suggested a future haul for shale of 347 trillion cubic feet. Twelve months later, that same report updated its shale estimates to 827 trillion cubic feet. But hey, what’s 500 trillion cubic feet among friends?
David Holt
President, Consumer Energy Alliance

I recently sent an email to the Energy Information Agency asking for an explanation of the assumptions and models that they use in developing the Annual Energy Outlook. Here is an excerpt from the reply that I received from a senior energy analyst with the EIA.

Namely, the reference case in our AEO projections is essentially based on current laws, regulations, and policies. That is, our reference case projects what will happen over the next 25 years IF NOTHING CHANGES. We assume that there are no new laws made relating to energy, no new Climate Change legislation, no new carbon controls, no new environmental policies on shale gas exploitation, etc. for the next 25 years. Can you imagine a situation in which Congress makes no new laws for the next 25 years? I can’t. Here at EIA, we all know that something is likely to be done with Climate Change and carbon controls. So our reference case is not really a forecast, so to speak. Rather, it’s a projection of what the USA will look like if no new laws and policies are made.

In other words, if you think that 3.22 quadrillion cubic feet is an incomprehensibly large number, you should understand a couple of things. First of all, annual US consumption of natural gas is already running at about 0.023 quadrillion (23 trillion) cubic feet per year. Even if all of the 3.22 quadrillion cubic feet that makes David Holt so giddy were accessible and even if we did NOT increase our rate of consumption, that resource would last only 140 years. What might happen if utilities decide that doubling their gas consumption is the right way to keep the lights on with increased restrictions on coal combustion? What will happen as that 140 years of resources shrinks rapidly with increasing annual consumption? Unrealistic romantics dream of a future powered just by the wind, water, and sun, but no one anywhere has figured out how to make any of those sources perform on command.

As the EIA analyst points out, the 140 year shale gas resource is accessible ONLY if there are NO additional restrictions put on hydraulic fracturing – I find that difficult to imagine given the very real negative impacts that the continuous drilling requires.

In a contrasting story, a group of Chinese scientists and engineers working at number 404 factory in the Gobi Desert announced on Monday, January 3, 2010 that they had proven to themselves that they had mastered used nuclear fuel recycling technology. By investing in continued development of that technology, they expect that they will be able to extract 60 times as much energy out of every kilogram of uranium as they do today.

That announcement was not about some kind of miraculous scientific breakthrough; it was about learning how to do something that many others have known how to do for several decades. The big difference is that the Chinese fully intend to use and improve their techniques to make what some observers have called a 50-70 year supply of uranium last as long as 3000-4200 years. That is an achievement that comes very close to qualifying as a response to a follow to the question that the National Journal asked.

If the answer to the National Journal’s question “Is natural gas the answer?” is a resounding No – as it is for me – then the next question that should follow is “Then what is?” My response is that the answer is uranium and thorium, which produce massive quantities of controllable heat that can be used for human needs and wants. The already discovered resource will last for thousands of years (not barely 100) and it will provide that energy without any emissions (not half as many units of CO2 per unit of heat as coal or oil.)

Related posts:

Natural Gas Not the Answer to a Low-Carbon Future Climate action game changer, Part 1: Is there a lot more natural gas than previously thought? China’s spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plan to supply nuclear reactors? Nuclear Retirements Would Sabotage Clean Power Plan Carbon Reductions

Rod Adams

Rod Adams gained his nuclear knowledge as a submarine engineer officer and as the founder of a company that tried to develop a market for small, modular reactors from 1993-1999. He began publishing Atomic Insights in 1995 and began producing The Atomic Show Podcast in March 2006. Following his Navy career and a three year stint with an SMR design project (B&W mPower), he turned Atomic Insights into an LLC and began devoting his full efforts to publishing, writing, and producing.

Filed Under: Natural Gas, Nuclear Power Tagged With: carbon, china, co2, eia, Gobi Desert, shale gas

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of

The Energy Collective Columns

Full Spectrum: Energy Analysis and Commentary with Jesse JenkinsEnergy and Policy Developments with John Miller
Game Changers column badgeEnergy for Human Development Column
Seeking Consensus with Schalk CloeteGreen Growth with Silvio Marcacci
New Energy VoicesMore coming soon...

Latest comments

  • Bas Gresnigt on New Solar Capacity Exceeded All Other Fuel Sources Combined in 2017, Study Finds When all costs are accounted for, only the operating costs of nuclear power plants ($/MWh produced) (April 23, 2018 at 10:52 AM)
  • Sean on $100 Oil Is Back On The Table Apparently proofreading would help. I think I did it from my cell phone. "the cost of oil" is what (April 23, 2018 at 12:03 AM)
  • John Miller on Why EPA’s U-Turn on Auto Efficiency Rules Gives China the Upper Hand Claiming that China is becoming the World’s leader on pollution control somewhat distorts the impact (April 22, 2018 at 9:56 PM)
  • BobMeinetz on $100 Oil Is Back On The Table Agree, Sean. Greed, it turns out, may be a self-solving problem. (April 22, 2018 at 3:16 PM)

Advisory Panel

About the panel

Scott Edward Anderson is a consultant, blogger, and media commentator who blogs at The Green Skeptic. More »


Christine Hertzog is a consultant, author, and a professional explainer focused on Smart Grid. More »


Elias Hinckley is a strategic advisor on energy finance and energy policy to investors, energy companies and governments More »


Gary Hunt Gary is an Executive-in-Residence at Deloitte Investments with extensive experience in the energy & utility industries. More »


Jesse Jenkins is a graduate student and researcher at MIT with expertise in energy technology, policy, and innovation. More »


Jim Pierobon helps trade associations/NGOs, government agencies and companies communicate about cleaner energy solutions. More »


Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC and an award-winning blogger. More »


Featured Contributors

Rod Adams

Scott Edward Anderson

Charles Barton

Barry Brook

Steven Cohen

Dick DeBlasio

Senator Pete Domenici

Simon Donner

Big Gav

Michael Giberson

Kirsty Gogan

James Greenberger

Lou Grinzo

Jesse Grossman

Tyler Hamilton

Christine Hertzog

David Hone

Gary Hunt

Jesse Jenkins

Sonita Lontoh

Rebecca Lutzy

Jesse Parent

Jim Pierobon

Vicky Portwain

Willem Post

Tom Raftery

Joseph Romm

Robert Stavins

Robert Stowe

Geoffrey Styles

Alex Trembath

Gernot Wagner

Dan Yurman

 

 

 

Follow Us

32-linkedin 32-facebook 32-twitter 32-rss

Content for personal use only. Distribution prohibited. Republication in part or in whole is strictly prohibited. © All rights reserved Energy Central © 2018

Recent Comments

  • Bas Gresnigt on New Solar Capacity Exceeded All Other Fuel Sources Combined in 2017, Study Finds
  • Sean on $100 Oil Is Back On The Table
  • John Miller on Why EPA’s U-Turn on Auto Efficiency Rules Gives China the Upper Hand

Recent Posts

  • The Dangers of Green Technology-Forcing
  • Without Ambitious Energy Efficiency Goals, the EU Will Fail Paris Targets
  • Egypt’s $60 Billion Bet on Nuclear Energy

Useful Pages

  • Terms of Use
  • Comments Policy
  • Privacy & Cookies
  • Help
  • About and Contact Us
Copyright © 2018 Energy Central. All Rights Reserved
This site uses cookies, for a number of reasons. By continuing to use this website you accept the use of cookies. Find out more.